New publication by former IM member Dr. Claudio Martani, former Master student Bryant Lai and PhD student Orlando Roman in the journal Infrastructure Asset Management!
Prof. Bryan T. Adey's Chair of Infrastructure Management congratulates Dr. Claudio Martani, Bryant Lai and Orlando Roman on the publication of the article “Evaluating Intelligent Transport Systems for multiple stakeholders and considering future uncertainty: A simulation-based cost-benefit analysis of responsive gateways at the London Bridge Station” in the journal Infrastructure Asset Management.
In this article, former IM member external pageDr. Claudio Martani, former IBI Master student external pageBryant Lai and current IM PhD student Orlando Roman show how the Real Options methodology can be used to estimate the costs and benefits associated with implementing responsive gateways at the London Bridge Station, while considering uncertainties in passenger flow and the interests of various stakeholders. Results from the demonstrative example indicate that the responsive gateways offer a better service than the static ones mainly due to the expected reduction in the risks related to safety, travel time and comfort that compensate for a higher cost of installation and maintenance. The simulation-based cost-benefit analysis can be extended to a broader range of intelligent transportation systems, considering uncertainties and their diverse impacts on society, and hence has a role in the development of smart cities.
The paper is based on the master thesis of Bryant Lai “Evaluation of sensing and responding systems for infrastructure using the real options methodology: London bridge” conducted in 2021.
Abstract:
The high concentration of people in train stations during rush hour poses a significant risk to passenger comfort and safety. Recent technological advancements in real-time crowd counting and pedestrian microsimulations have made it feasible to create responsive gateways for managing passenger flow to prevent overcrowding situations. This paper proposes a simulation-based cost-benefit analysis, utilizing the Real Options methodology commonly employed to assess flexible infrastructure, to estimate the costs and benefits associated with implementing responsive gateways at the London Bridge Station, while considering uncertainties in passenger flow and the interests of various stakeholders. Results from the demonstrative example indicate that the responsive gateways offer a better service than the static ones mainly due to the expected reduction in the risks related to safety, travel time and comfort that compensate for a higher cost of installation and maintenance. Further research is envisioned to enhance the modeling of passenger flow uncertainties and expand the objective function to encompass additional externalities. The simulation-based cost-benefit analysis proposed in this paper can be extended to a broader range of intelligent transportation systems, considering uncertainties and their diverse impacts on society. Thus, this paper presents a tool that contributes to a more transparent and objective investment decision-making process, particularly concerning the development of smart cities.
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